Thursday, April 24, 2008

Who is really ahead in the democratic primary?

Popular vote

For whatever it is worth, while it is being claimed that Barack Obama is ahead in the delegates and votes, is he? While I am not for re-do's, roll-overs and rewarding rule breakers, it is kind of tough to claim Obama is ahead on popular votes when he is not. While they may not be seated, you can not talk popular vote and then ignore them. You can legitimately talk about the delegate count and ignore them.

Obama pulled his name off Michigan's ballot, but again are you going to ignore a state the democrats need to win the election in November in the popular vote?

2008 Democratic Popular Vote -hat tip to real clear politics


Popular Vote Count


Popular Vote Total 14,417,134 49.2% 13,916,781 47.5%
Obama +500,353 +1.7%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 14,751,218 49.3% 14,140,643 47.2%
Obama +610,575 +2.1%

Popular Vote (w/FL) 14,993,348 48.3% 14,787,767 47.6%
Obama +205,581 +0.7%
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 15,327,432 48.4% 15,011,629 47.4%
Obama +315,803 +1.0%
Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)** 14,993,348 47.4% 15,116,076 47.8%
Clinton +122,728 +0.4%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 15,327,432 47.5% 15,339,938 47.5%
Clinton +12,506 +0.04%


*(Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals. RealClearPolitics has estimated the popular vote totals for Senator Obama and Clinton in these four states. RCP uses the WA Caucus results from February 9 in this estimate because the Caucuses on February 9 were the “official” contest recognized by the DNC to determine delegates to the Democratic convention. The estimate from these four Caucus states where there are not official popular vote numbers increases Senator Obama’s popular vote margin by 110,224. This number would be about 50,000 less if the Washington primary results from February 19th were used instead of the Washington Caucus results.)

**(Senator Obama was not on the Michigan Ballot and thus received zero votes. Uncommitted was on the ballot and received 238,168 votes as compared to 328,309 for Senator Clinton.)

Delegates

Barack is certainly ahead in delegates , but superdelegates may legitimately consider that many of his states are solid republican states . Barack is pulling the more liberal, and the more intellectual democrat. Let me be more blunt, he is pulling the base who will vote democratic. Hillary is winning the states the democrats need to win the general election and she is pulling the white blue collar worker. She is pulling the swing voter too.



DEMOCRATIC 'SUPER' DELEGATES


An estimated 795 "unpledged" or "super" delegates will attend the Democratic Party's national convention. The super delegates are national party leaders (members of Congress, governors etc.) who are automatically appointed under party rules. They are not required to vote for any particular candidate and may commit or change their minds at any time up until the convention.

This is almost the exact case scenario that the super delegate system was put in place for. There are two major states who votes will not count in the primary, yet there are super delegates who can correct that and vote to make the outcome as if they did vote.

The question is will they? Or are they afraid to?

2008 presidential primary and caucus results
Where are the candidates delegates from?







How and where democrats have won before

In 1992 and 1996 when Democrats won the elections they carried the following states









Where the Republicans won in 2000 and 2004

2004



2000

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